Bank On It: Butler's three at the buzzer lifts WVU over Cincy

NCAA Basketball Betting Lines

03/12/2010 - New York, NY (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - De'Sean Butler's closely-contested three- pointer off the glass as time expired advanced his seventh-ranked Mountaineers and ended Cincinnati's improbable march through the conference gauntlet, as West Virginia survived an upset-riddled quarterfinal round at the Big East Tournament, 54-51.

The game appeared destined for overtime after going through a wild chain of events in the final 6.4 seconds. First, Dion Dixon lost control of the basketball along the left sideline, and the ball eventually caromed off his knee and out of bounds. The Mountaineers (25-6) took advantage, with Butler catching the ball out near the top of the arc, rising and firing over Cincinnati freshman star Lance Stephenson for the game-winner.

Several Bearcats (18-15) fell to the floor at the horn. Stephenson had the best look at Butler's basket that downed his club despite his 19-point, seven- rebound stat line.

Kevin Jones scored 17, Butler added 15 and Devin Ebanks totaled 10 for the Mountaineers, who are the only top-four seed left at Madison Square Garden. They will face Notre Dame in the second semifinal, with Georgetown and Marquette taking the court first on Friday.

A struggle marked in equal parts solid defense and offensive ineptitude shifted over the final three-plus minutes. Trailing 47-42, Cincinnati turned to its season-long shaky perimeter shooting to get back into the game. First, Deonta Vaughn's trey cut the deficit to two then Darnell Wilks crashed the offensive glass for a game-tying putback with just under three minutes to play.

Jones drained a jumper then Stephenson made 1-of-2 from the foul line. Jones was in the right place at the right time moments later, finding a scoring chance off a loose-ball scrum for a 51-48 lead with 1:07 to play. Again, the Bearcats stepped out beyond their comfort zone, as Stephenson -- a 27-percent three-point shooter on the conference's worst, and the nation's 277th-best, long-distance shooting team, -- buried a right-wing trey for a 51-51 stalemate with 42.1 seconds remaining.

An Ebanks missed opportunity resulted in a dead ball with just 6.4 seconds left. After a Cincinnati timeout, Dixon lost control of a left-handed dribble for a turnover. West Virginia then found Butler out top, he worked his way to the top of the arc, and connected on a difficult shot over Stephenson's outstretched arms.

After holding a 26-23 lead at the half, the Mountaineers first stretched their lead to seven at 30-23 then to eight at 33-25 on a free throw by Cam Thoroughman. The margin grew to nine at 45-36 on a Jones layup with just under seven minutes to go, but the Bearcats refused to go away, scoring seven in a row moments later for a 47-45 deficit.

Game Notes

West Virginia won both meetings this season, including a 74-68 decision back on February 27th...Cincinnati, however, still leads the all-time series, 10-8...Vaughn totaled nine points for the Bearcats...Cincinnati made 5-of-14 threes, but shot just 33.3 percent from the floor...One night after dominating Louisville on the glass, both teams got their fair share of offensive boards with the Bearcats grabbing 14 and West Virginia 17.

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Numerous College Basketball teams take final big step to March Madness betting

So, what turned on the lock spigot? Well, after what felt like weeks of teams treading water and slipping back into the bubble muck, a bunch of them finally decided to say "to heck with parity" and won games that should put them into the Big Dance.

Disagree with some of these? Then here's the challenge. Take all of the "should be ins" and make a legit case that each should be ahead of the team that's a lock. Then find 10 more teams that also should be placed in the bracket ahead of that lock team. Not so easy, is it?

If you want more evidence that these locks should be good to go, check out what our research department dug up. Since the NCAA Tournament went to 64 teams in 1985, only six teams from a "big six" conference have had a record of 10-6 or better in conference play and not been selected: Colorado (2004) and Nebraska (1999) from the Big 12, Boston College and Seton Hall (both 2003) from the Big East, Indiana (2005) from the Big Ten and UCLA, which somehow went 12-6 in the Pac-10 in 1988 and still missed out. (Note: Five teams went 11-7 and didn't get in, the latest being last season's Stanford team, which had a brutal nonconference run.)

Yes, 10 conference wins doesn't always mean what it used to because of unbalanced schedules, but this season, it should be plenty good in all but the extreme cases (see: Iowa).

In a way, this is a welcome development, because this is a bubble watch, not a lock watch. We can finally be done with teams like Maryland and Virginia Tech and start really bearing down on at-large battles such as Syracuse-West Virginia and Appalachian State-Georgia Tech.

Interestingly, all the shifting of teams into lock status appears to be more administrative than impactful. The number of remaining available at-larges didn't change one iota. The only difference is that teams on the bubble now have a clearer idea of which team(s) they are competing with for those precious bids.

The Bubble Breakdown
CONFERENCE LOCKS SHOULD BE INS AT-LARGES TAKEN
(assuming no auto bid outlier)
ACC Betting Odds 6 0 5
Big East Betting Odds 5 0 4
Big Ten Betting Odds 2 2 3
Big 12 Betting Odds 3 0 2
Pac-10 Betting Odds 5 1 5
SEC Betting Odds 4 0 3
MVC Betting Odds 1 1 1
MWC Betting Odds 2 1 2
TOTAL 28 5 25

As always, I've tried to be as inclusive as possible while only including teams that would have a reasonable chance of at least being discussed if this were Selection Sunday. If your team's not on here, there's probably a good reason (or three) -- start with the RPI and SOS numbers and work your way down.

(Please remember, per selection committee criteria, that records displayed are Division I only. Next update: Feb. 28)

If you have a legitimate grievance, or just like talking bubble, send an e-mail. Polite ones with fact-based arguments have a much better chance of receiving a response. I apologize in advance if I can't get back to all of you.

Atlantic Coast Conference

Work left to do: Clemson, Florida State, Georgia Tech

The ACC moves to six locks as BC, Va Tech and Virginia all got their 10th ACC wins, which should be more than enough this season, and Maryland rallied past North Carolina to get the final piece the Terps needed. After that? It could end there unless FSU, Ga Tech or Clemson picks things up in a hurry.

 

Work left to do:

Clemson [19-9 (5-9), RPI: 41, SOS: 42] The Tigers are closer to locking up the collapse of the year award (in a good battle with OK State) than they are to grabbing an at-large. Clemson's been very competitive, but there's no really positive way you can spin nine losses in 11 games. They now cannot get to .500 in ACC play and still must head to Virginia Tech in the season finale (after hosting Miami). Unless the Tigers win both and/or do some serious work in the ACC tourney, they very well could be left out. There are no great nonconference wins, but ODU, App State, Miss. State, South Carolina and Georgia are all respectable W's.

Florida State [18-11 (6-9), RPI: 48, SOS: 14] The Noles got thrashed at Maryland to run their losing streak to five, but then pounded NC State at home to set the table for what likely is an elimination game at Miami. You can at least make a case for the Seminoles at 7-9 in ACC play (and some work in the ACC tourney), but 6-10 is not going to cut it. Wins at Duke and over Florida will resonate, but the computer numbers remain questionable. Beyond Florida, FSU thrashed bubble buddy Providence, but there's not a ton beyond those two games that will help. They didn't show well in big-time opportunities against Pitt and Wisconsin (before the Florida win).

Georgia Tech [18-10 (6-8), RPI: 51, SOS: 46] The Jackets beat Wake on Wednesday but couldn't get it done at UVa on Saturday, which could be a crucial loss with UNC and BC (both at home) remaining and 8-8 almost a certain need for at-large consideration. A nonconference win over Memphis helps, but the RPI and SOS are not at-large quality right now; if you combine those with a sub-.500 ACC mark, that could spell NIT for GT.

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