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03/12/2010 - (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - A key battle for the Atlantic Division crown is on tap tonight in Newark as the Pittsburgh Penguins visit the New Jersey Devils at Prudential Center.
The Penguins lead the Atlantic with 85 points, while New Jersey -- the defending division champs -- are four points behind.
Pittsburgh and the Devils will complete the regular-season series next week, meeting for the final time Wednesday in New Jersey. The Devils have taken all four encounters with the defending Stanley Cup champions this year and have outscored the Pens by a 14-2 margin in those tests.
The Devils have six wins in the last eight meetings with Pittsburgh overall and have taken three of the last four clashes in Newark.
New Jersey has struggled lately, going 4-7-1 over its last 12 outings. The Devils were able to snap a two-game slide with Wednesday's home win over the rival New York Rangers.
Devils captain Jamie Langenbrunner was one of six different goal-scorers who led New Jersey to the 6-3 win over the Rangers. Langenbrunner, Brian Rolston, Travis Zajac and Rob Niedermayer each had a goal and an assist for New Jersey, while Zach Parise and Bryce Salvador also lit the lamp.
Dainius Zubrus, Andy Greene and Mike Mottau each collected two helpers for the Devils, who returned from a 1-3-0 road trip to play their first home game since a 5-2 triumph over Nashville on February 12.
"It was a good test for us. We needed to get a win in a tough battle," said Langenbrunner, who reached the 600-point mark with an assist on Salvador's goal in the first period,
Martin Brodeur made 16 saves on 19 shots to earn the win -- his 36th this season.
The Devils are 21-9-1 as the host this year and have won three of their last four at the Rock.
Meanwhile, the Penguins had a four-game winning streak halted Thursday in Carolina, dropping an overtime decision to the Hurricanes. Brian Pothier scored on a one-timer 23 seconds into the extra session to lift the hosts at RBC Center.
"I think that the team we played tonight has proven all year long that they are not going to stop playing. They are going to work regardless of the standings," said Penguins head coach Dan Bylsma.
Jordan Staal, Bill Guerin and Matt Cooke provided the offense for Pittsburgh, which picked up at least a point in its ninth straight game (5-0-4). Sidney Crosby added an assist to push his point streak to six games.
Brent Johnson allowed four goals on 21 shots to take the loss. Regular starter Marc-Andre Fleury is expected to be back between the pipes tonight.
The Penguins are making the second stop on a five-game road trip tonight. Pittsburgh is 19-12-2 as the guest this year, tying the club with Washington for the most road wins in the Eastern Conference.
Eric Godard is questionable tonight for the Pens with a groin injury, while fellow forward Tyler Kennedy is expected to miss his second straight test with the same issue.
<< Blue Devils hope to avoid upset in ACC tourney clash with Cavs
Greensboro, NC (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The top-seeded and fourth-ranked Duke Blue
Devils begin their quest for another ACC Tournament title today, as they take
on the ninth-seeded Virginia Cavaliers in the quarterfinal round at Greensboro
Coliseum.
<< Tulsa takes on UTEP in C-USA Tournament semifinals
Tulsa, OK (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The top-seeded and 25th-ranked Texas-El Paso
Miners come together with the fifth-seeded Tulsa Golden Hurricane in the
semifinal round of the Conference USA Tournament today at the BOK Center. The
survivor of this bo
<< Irish and Mountaineers fight for right to play for Big East title
New York, NY (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The third-seeded and seventh-ranked West
Virginia Mountaineers duke it out with the seventh-seeded Notre Dame Fighting
Irish in the semifinal round of the Big East Tournament tonight at Madison
Square Garden. The
<< Georgetown and Marquette meet in Big East semis
New York, NY (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Two teams that shook up the Big East
Tournament yesterday come together in the semifinals tonight, as the eighth-
seeded and 22nd-ranked Georgetown Hoyas battle the fifth-seeded Marquette
Golden Eagles at Madison
Nuggets visit the Big Easy to take on Hornets >>
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - One slip at the controls and the Denver Nuggets will have
some company atop the Northwest Division standings. They'll try to prevent
that from happening tonight, when they resume a four-game road trip against
the New Orleans
Thunder host hapless Nets >>
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The chances of the Oklahoma City Thunder posting their
fifth straight home win look promising, as they will resume a three-game
residency versus the miserable New Jersey Nets from the Ford Center.
The Thunder made it four
Desperate Grizzlies welcome Knicks to Memphis >>
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Memphis Grizzlies are still alive in the Western
Conference playoff race, but time is running short. Tonight they'll begin a
three-game homestand versus the New York Knicks at FedEx Forum with hopes of
gaining ground in t
Sabres try to run win streak to four games versus Wild >>
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Buffalo Sabres will aim for a fourth consecutive
victory when they welcome the Minnesota Wild for an interconference clash at
HSBC Arena.
The Sabres' three-game winning streak is the club's longest since a season-
bes
There is little doubt that the NFL is where the sportsbooks see the most action and also make the most loot. The NFL possesses betting friendly attributes that are unlike any of the other major sports. First off, there are relatively few teams to keep track of in comparison to college football betting or college basketball. And second, these teams play only once a week which makes staying on top of the results much easier than it is in the daily leagues such as the NBA, NHL, and MLB.
These dynamics, along with the sheer excitement of watching and wagering on football, brings more square action to the table than any of the other sports. Almost every Tom, Dick and Harry in America is an NFL expert in their own mind and that is precisely what the oddsmakers prey upon.
Understanding who bets the games is just as important as understanding which teams are playing the games. The market at times will dictate price, which in the betting world means the oddsmakers cater to the public rather than reality.
Knowing the market inside and out is the basis of our NFL handicapping model. That is, our approach to NFL handicapping is of the contrarian or value seeking variety. We will at times place a higher premium on public sentiment than on the fundamentals. This strategy dictates playing dogs and/or lesser competent teams, or teams the public wants nothing to do with. Or better yet, fading the teams the oddsmakers want you to bet on.
Along these same lines, we carry a similar notion that the first week of the NFL season presents one of the ripest opportunities for the astute gambler. This conflicts with conventional wisdom and/or handicapping lore, as most would say it is better to watch a few games and assess each team before jumping in with both feet. That’s all fine and dandy, but there are some interesting trends to exploit in Week 1 and we’d be remiss to ignore them. Let us quickly explain.
Gone are the days of dynasties, where the same core players stay intact and dominate the league year after year. Free agency and player movements can completely transform teams from one season to the next. In today’s parity-driven NFL, poor teams typically don’t stay poor for all that long and excellent teams must constantly reinvent themselves to stay on top.
The temptation might be to assume prior year results are the best indicator of who is going to cover in Week 1. To Joe Public, playoff teams from the prior season, home teams, favorites, and so one, look even more enticing than usual since there is no current season performance to judge them against. But the question begs: are the oddsmakers setting a trap?
To find the answer, we culled five years worth of Week 1 NFL data. As always, all of our analysis is done from an ATS perspective. The purpose here is to share the most important angles we unearthed and try to explain the logic behind them. So strap on your helmet, throw on your shoulder pads, and follow our lead as we expose some rare holes in the oddsmakers’ line of defense.
Home vs. Away Teams
Over the past five seasons, NFL home teams in Week 1 are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). This of course implies that roadies are a 58 percent winning proposition during this time. The public at large has a tendency to overvalue home teams and this is especially true in Week 1 when there is no current season data to make predictions from. Consequently, the oddsmakers almost surely shade the home teams, by and large making road teams the choice for the value player.
Conclusion: Look long and hard at road teams first when handicapping the opening week.
Price ranges
Favorites are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent) in the opening week over the past five NFL seasons (Coincidentally, home teams hold the same ATS record as noted above). This means that underdogs bark at a 58 percent clip. Mid-range favorites performed the worst among our specified price ranges. In particular, favorites priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 are only 8-15 ATS (35 percent) during this time.
The same basic pattern holds true when looking at home favorites (road favorites gravitate towards a 50 percent mean). Home favorites indeed are just 21-32-3 ATS (40 percent) in the first week of NFL action since 1999. Again, mid-range favorites are similarly the poorest performers when we look at home teams. Consider that home teams priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 have stumbled to a 6-13 ATS (32 percent) mark in Week 1 games the past five seasons.
Conclusion: Like home teams, favorites and particularly mid-range favorites are generally overvalued in Week 1.
Playoff teams
It might surprise you to learn that playoff teams from the prior year versus non-playoff teams from the prior year are a mere 16-23-3 (41 percent) ATS in NFL Week 1 games over the past five seasons. Home teams which made the playoffs versus teams which did not make the playoffs from the prior season drop to a meager 7-14-1 ATS (33 percent) during this time.
Why are playoff teams, and in particular those at home, such bad bets the past five openers? Just as the case with home teams and with favorites, oddsmakers intentionally overprice playoff teams in the opening week to compensate for the public’s propensity to over bet them.
This theory holds true just looking at straight-up records from the past season as well. That is, home teams with winning records from the prior season vs. road teams with losing records from the prior season are just 8-13 ATS in Week 1 NFL games since 1999.
Conclusion: Playoff teams from the prior year and in particular, home playoff teams, are overvalued in Week 1 NFL games.
Scoring defense and scoring offense
Do good defenses and for that matter good offenses from the prior season fare better against the number the following year in Week 1 games? Well, sort of. Generally speaking, teams with a solid offense or defense from the prior season tend to do well in the opening week so long as they are on the road. As a host, however, the best offenses and best defenses from the prior year tend to be overvalued in Week 1.
Consider that the top five scoring defenses (i.e. points allowed) from the prior season are a nice 8-4 ATS (66 percent) on the road in NFL openers the past five seasons. Meanwhile, the top five scoring defenses from the prior season are just 3-8-2 ATS (27 percent) as a host in Week 1 during the same time period.
There is no discernable advantage or disadvantage for teams with a top five scoring offense (i.e. points scored) in Week 1 games. However, when we look at scoring offenses from the bottom up (isolating the five worst offenses from the prior season), the results are rather interesting. In particular, teams ranked in the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are 9-4-1 ATS (69 percent) when on the road in Week 1.
The logic is simply that the public perception is a poor scoring offensive unit from the year prior will have little chance of winning on the road in Week 1. In turn, the oddsmakers compensate for this perception and these poor offensive teams from the year prior carry extra line value on the Week 1 trail.
Conclusion: Teams with top-ranked defenses from the previous season are good bets when playing on the road, but poor bets when playing at home. Also, teams ranked among the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are generally a good value in their Week 1 openers, provided they are playing on the road.
Scoring margin
An exceedingly straightforward way of measuring scoring offense and scoring defense together as a whole is to look at a team's “margin." Margin is simply scoring offense minus scoring defense, which is a fairly clear-cut measure of how a team does on both sides of the ball. Typically, the higher the margin, the better the team.
In this regard, it might seem counterintuitive that teams carrying the higher margin from the prior season in week one matchups are merely 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). Furthermore, road teams with the higher margin are 14-20-6 ATS (41 percent), while home teams with the higher margin are 17-22-1 ATS (44 percent). Once again, these results line up with the theory that better teams from the prior year are overvalued come opening day of the following season.
Conclusion: “Better” teams, which often boast a higher margin than their opponent, are overvalued the following season in NFL openers.
In sum
Oddsmakers cater NFL betting lines to match public perception and also to bait the public into poor bets. The temptation to use the prior year’s success as a buy sign for how a team will perform against the spread in Week 1 of the following season is an enormous trap.
The fact is, isolating road teams, road dogs, non-playoff teams vs. playoff teams, teams with a losing record or low margin vs. playoff teams or ones with a high margin from the previous year is where the line value resides. Quite simply, taking the road less traveled is your surest path to NFL betting profits.
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