Playoffs Or Bust

Football Betting Lines

12/22/2006 - Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The final two weeks of the regular season are upon us, and now is the time to bet against teams that already have locked up playoff bids.

Indianapolis and Seattle combined for a 1-5 ATS mark in the last three weeks of last season, and back in 04, four division winners (Colts, Eagles, Packers and Falcons) combined to go 2-10 ATS in the final three weeks of the regular season. Just something to keep in mind as this year winds down.

There are a few match-ups that follow that trend this weekend, and one of them comes from East Rutherford, New Jersey, where the 7-7 Giants host the Saints. New York shot itself in the foot last Sunday, losing to Philadelphia, 36-22. The Giants now are tied for the final wild-card spot with Atlanta, although they do have a win under their belts over the Falcons. Green Bay, with its win over Minnesota, is now 7-8. Three teams stand at 6-8, so a loss to New Orleans would be devastating for New York.

The Saints clinched the NFC South after the Falcons lost to the Cowboys last week. New Orleans hosts the Panthers in its final game. If Carolina loses at Atlanta this week, then the Panthers will have nothing to play for in their game vs. New Orleans. So the Saints could still finish with 10 wins and get a first-round bye.

This game means the world to the Giants and not as much to the Saints. Making the playoffs is a little more important than fighting for homefield advantage, so Big Blue has a decided mental edge heading into the game. Sometimes thats all a team needs during the last couple of weeks of the regular season.

There are a few more games of this nature on Sunday, starting with Baltimore at Pittsburgh. The Ravens have clinched the division and more than likely will be a little less intense than they have been in previous weeks.

Pittsburgh, surprising as it sounds, is still alive after winning its last three games. The Steelers are making one final push for the playoffs, and since this is a 1 p.m. Eastern Time start, they won't know if they are out of the chase until after the game. In addition, they have defeated the Ravens each of the last four years at home

Seattle takes on San Diego, and the Seahawks have yet to clinch the NFC West. The last two games have seen the team give up a combined 41 points to Arizona and San Francisco.

At first glance, trying to hold down the Chargers seems like an impossible task. SD has ridden the LT Train all season long, to the tune of 12-2. However, the Bolts pretty much have clinched a first-round bye, especially since they host Arizona for their final game. Seattle needs a win in the worst way, not only to clinch the division, but also to restore a winning attitude among last years NFC Super Bowl representative.

Finally, New England travels to Jacksonville, another team fighting for a playoff spot. The Jaguars were humbled at Tennessee last week, despite holding the Titans to only 98 yards of total offense. Tennessees defense was the story, scoring three touchdowns in the team's fifth straight win.

The Jags have to go to Kansas City for their regular season finale, so a win this week at home is a must. They have been unstoppable at ALLTELL Stadium this year, winning and covering six of their seven games and outscoring their opponents by an average score of 27-9. The Patriots do not have as much to play for since the AFC East is all but wrapped up. They are also 2-5 ATS in their last seven games.

To recap, go with the Giants, Steelers, Seahawks and Jaguars.

Two other contests feature major mismatches on paper, as the 10-3 Colts play the 4-10 Texans, while the 2-12 Lions host the 12-2 Bears. I recommend playing the home-town underdogs in these contests, but not as heavily as the four choices listed above.

THIS WEEKS TOP PLAY

Just like last Sunday when the Giants were 5 1/2-point favorites over the Eagles, I don't understand why the Cowboys are such heavy favorites this week over the E-A-G-L-E-S. Philly is playing as well as any team in the NFC right now and usually holds its own with Dallas. The Eagles have won eight of the last 11 match-ups, failing to cover only three of them. They are also 3-2 SU in Dallas in the last five years and one of the losses came by two points.

Take Philadelphia plus the seven and you'll have a very merry Christmas.

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How did changes to college football betting rules affect bettors?

The 2007 college football rules changes that were implemented to shorten games are now history. The NCAA rules committee did what they set out to do; games were cut by an average of 14 minutes per game last season. There were also, on average, 14 fewer plays per game. We’ll get into how that did (or didn’t) affect games in regards to the pointspread a bit later.

While the NCAA rules committee may have had the betterment of the game in mind, they'll now “turn back the clock” for next season. Two key rules have now been overturned by the NCAA committee for the 2007 season, something definitely for the better.

For those of you who may not remember what those rules actually were, let us refresh your memory.

1) The first one was actually starting the clock on a kickoff as soon as the kicker touched the ball rather than waiting until the returner touched it. The problem here was near the end of the half (or game), if the team leading was kicking off, they could milk the clock by intentionally running offsides and then re-kicking. They could run 10-15 seconds off the clock each play while taking just five-yard penalties each time. They could run the clock down and simply cause the half (or game) to end on a kickoff, keeping the opposing offense off the field. In 2007, the clock will now start when the returner touches the ball as it had before last season.

2) The second rule dealt with starting the clock after a change of online football betting possession rather than waiting until the ball was snapped. This took a lot of time off the clock throughout the game as teams changed possession, however it caused the most problems late in games (or halves). Rather than huddling up and calling a play, the offensive team would have to rush onto the field as the clock started. This was a definite disadvantage to a team that was trying to come from behind late in the game. This year the clock will start on a change of possession, after the ball is snapped.

How did those rules affect the college game last year and will it make a difference this year when it comes to the pointspread? We commonly heard two theories when it came to these changes. First, it would affect scoring negatively. Second, it would hurt favorites as they would have less time and fewer plays to cover the number.

Did the rules hurt scoring? Yes. It seemed obvious that shortening the game by what amounted to 14 plays would push scoring downward. That was the case last year. Of the 119 Division 1A teams, 69 squads scored fewer points in 2007 than they did in 2005. Just 48 teams had a higher PPG scoring average and two stayed the same. Almost 59 percent of the teams in college football last year had a lower PPG average than they did in 2005. Expect more scoring in 2007 as we revert back to the old rules.

Did the rules hinder favorites from covering the number in 2007? Not really. Last year the favorites posted an overall spread record of 336-350-16 (48.9 percent). The year before, favorites were 316-326-13 (49.2 percent). In 2004, the favorites were 316-339-2 (48.2 percent). In fact, college football favorites have been above 50 percent for the season just once in the last seven years (in 2003). Last year’s numbers fell right in line with where they have been historically.

How about big favorites? The rules must have hurt them? Maybe a little bit. Double-digit favorites last year came in at a 47.8 percent clip compare with an average of just over 50 percent over the last seven years. Since 1980, favorites of -10 or more have covered at exactly a 50 percent clip (measured over 6,716 games).

Even bigger favorites must have struggled? Not really. In fact, it was just the opposite. Favorites of three TD’s or more were 59-54-2 last year (52.2 percent). Since 2000, those same favorites (-21 or higher) hit at 51.3 percent and since 1990 came in a clip of 50.3 percent. Stepping it up a notch to four TD favorites or higher, we actually see they've covered at a much better rate last season than before. Last year, favorites of -28 or more were 31-21-1, or almost 60 percent. Historically, four-TD-or-higher favorites have come in at a 50.7 percent spot since 2000 and only 48.9 percent since 1990. The “perceived” problem with the favorites covering at a reduced rate really never came to fruition.

Bottom line is, there might be some more scoring in 2007, but no real revelations when it comes to finding any pointspread golden nuggets.

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